FUTURE
TECHNIQUES
"IT
IS CLEAR TO ME THAT IN ORDER TO SUCCESSFULLY DO BUSINESS IN THE
2000'S, TRADERS ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TECHNIQUES OF THE 1900'S,"
SAYS DR NIRMAL
DHALLU,
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS SPECIALIST 5D
LTD.
"THE
MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEMS AVAILABLE FOR INTRA-DAY ARE SIMPLY BASED ON END
OF DAY CHARTING METHODS, ORIGINATED IN THE EARLY PART OF THE CENTURY, THAT
PRIMARILY RELY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. HOWEVER,
THESE PATTERNS ARE NOT NECESSARILY VALID WHEN THE TRADING DAY IS ARTIFICIALLY
CUT INTO SAY, FIVE OR TEN MINUTE INTErVALS. THE MODERN METHODS, ON THE
OTHER HAND, ARE USUALLY LAGGING INDICATORS THAT HAVE WORKED WELL IN THE
TRENDING MARKETS, BUT HAVE SERIOUS DRAWBACKS AS DAY-TRADING SYSTEMS BECAUSE
TRADERS MUST CLOSE POSITIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
"AN
INTRA-DAY TRADING SYSTEM MUST IDENTIFY CHANGE IN MARKET DIRECTION FOR EARLY
TRADE ENTRY AND HAVE A TARGET FOR EXITING A TRADE BEFORE MARKET TURNS.
RESEARCH SHOWS THAT THE MARKET IS REMARKABLY PREDICTABLE IN THE SHORT
TERM. IT MOVES IN ACCORDANCE WITH FIXED LAWS OF MATHEMATICALLY COMPUTABLE
NUMBERS INVOLVING PRICE AND TIME. IF THESE NUMBERS ARE KNOWN IN ADVANCE,
THEN THE FUTURE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET CAN BE DETERMINED ACCURATELY.
THIS
HYPOTHESIS IS BEING USED TO DEVELOP NEW SYSTEMS, INCLUDING THE
FIRST MODEL, WHICH CAN BE EQUALLY EFFECTIVE IN ALL
MARKETS AS LONG AS REAL-TIME DATA IS PROVIDED BY THE EXCHANGES AND THE
CONTRACT TRADED IS SUFFICIENTLY LIQUID. THE DAY TRADER SHOULD AVOID INSTRUMENTS
WITH TRADING LIMITS - I HAVE SERIOUS RESERVATIONS ABOUT DAY TRADING OF
INDIVIDUAL STOCKS DUE TO THE WIDE SPREADS AND COST OF TRADING.
ONLY
VERY RECENTLY HAVE PROFESSIONAL AND PRIVATE TRADRS BEEN ABLE TO COMPETE
ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD AS THE TECHNOLOGY HAS ALLOWED FASTER ACCESS TO
INFORMATION DATA AT LOWER COSTS. THE FLOW OF INFORMATION HAS BECOME
SO MUCH FASTER THAT THE MARKETS REACTION TO WORLD EVENTS IS NOW ALMOST
INSTANTANEOUS. CLEARLY, ALL EYES ARE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
INTERNET, AND WE HOPE THAT THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE NET PROVIDING
AN ACCESS ON DEMAND BASIS. |